Agrarian Economy 2025 Т. 18 № 1-2: 71-83

STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF ENTREPRENEURIAL RISKS

Raiter N., Candidate of Economic Sciences (PhD), Associate Professor
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-7108-2539
Lviv National Environmental University
Matskiv H., Candidate of Economic Sciences (PhD), Associate Professor
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-1329-7355
Lviv National Environmental University

https://doi.org/10.31734/agrarecon2025.01-02.071

ANNOTATION

The article focuses on the statistical assessment of entrepreneurial risks, particularly in the agricultural sector. It discusses the main types of entrepreneurial risks, their classification, and the factors influencing the level of risk. The significance of quantitatively assessing these risks within the risk management system is clarified, highlighting the importance of systematic risk assessment in making informed business decisions. Special emphasis is placed on the methodology for statistical risk assessment, which utilizes various statistical methods, such as descriptive statistics, variance analysis, and correlation and regression analysis, to process extensive data.

The research confirms that the agricultural sector remains one of the most high-risk areas for entrepreneurship, especially in times of economic instability and conflict. Beyond systemic business risks, agricultural entrepreneurship faces unique challenges due to the interconnectedness of production processes with biological factors, reliance on land plots, and dependence on natural and climatic conditions.

By applying statistical methods, the study analyzed the profitability dynamics within agribusiness, the variability in profitability levels among enterprises, and the likelihood of financial losses. The findings indicate that under martial law conditions, entrepreneurial risks have markedly increased. A map illustrating the probability of loss across Ukrainian regions reveals significant differentiation based on proximity to combat zones. It was determined that the risks associated with contemporary agrarian entrepreneurship are heavily influenced by external factors, including geopolitical threats, the macroeconomic environment, and fluctuations in the global food market. A statistical assessment of profitability loss risk in various agrarian sectors indicated that grain and sunflower production present the lowest risk levels, while all forms of meat production are the riskiest. The article emphasizes the necessity of diversifying business risks through optimal production portfolio formation and the implementation of modern risk management tools.

KEYWORDS

entrepreneurial risks, statistical assessment, agricultural entrepreneurship, risk factors, risk assessment, absolute and relative indicators of statistical risk assessment, mathematical expectation of risks, variation, dispersion

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