This paper analyzes global forecasts and long-term development trends in world agriculture in the context of increasing economic, climatic, and social challenges, with a focus on their implications for shaping priorities of Ukraine’s post-war recovery and sustainable development of the agricultural sector and rural areas. The study is based on long-term forecasts and analytical materials from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on global agricultural development up to 2050, as well as generalized statistical and model-based assessments across world macro-regions, applying comparative, structural-logical, and forecast-analytical methods.

The paper examines contemporary approaches to long-term forecasting of global agricultural production used by international organizations and research institutions and analyzes the FAO forecast for eight world macro-regions. The results show that despite overall improvements in global food security and a decline in undernourishment, food deficits persist in several regions. At the same time, increasing polarization of the global agri-food market is observed, with some macro-regions becoming more export-oriented, while others remain structurally dependent on imports.

The study synthesizes key global challenges and threats to agri-food systems, identifies possible response pathways, and outlines major directions of agricultural modernization based on recent scientific and technological advances and agroecological principles. The relevance of economic, environmental, technological, and social global challenges for the transformation of Ukraine’s agricultural sector and rural areas is substantiated. Ukraine’s vulnerability to global market fluctuations, climate risks, soil and water degradation, as well as structural constraints limiting small and medium-sized producers’ access to finance and innovation, is demonstrated. The paper emphasizes the need for a comprehensive, inclusive, and agroecologically oriented approach to transforming the national agri-food system.